---
格式版本: 2
标题: "Spare a Thought for Broadcom Shareholders"
原文链接: "https://mbideepdives.substack.com/p/spare-a-thought-for-broadcom-shareholders"
发布日期: "2026-09-04"
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发现时间: "2026-09-06T19:46:51+08:00"
入库时间: "2026-09-06T11:48:13.242Z"
来源平台: "Substack 数据中心相关博客搜索"
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搜索词: "site:substack.com Broadcom"
匹配关键词:
  []
相关厂家:
  - "Broadcom"
  - "NVIDIA"
  - "Meta"
相关专家:
  []
内容类型: "网页"
抓取工具: "Free Fetch + Defuddle"
清洗工具: "Defuddle Markdown + Defuddle/Readability 正文提取"
原始附件:
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AI优质: "否"
AI打分: 16
AI分档: "非优质"
AI质检状态: "不通过"
AI打分理由: "正文主线是Broadcom股价表现及2028年营收、EPS预期上调，并非超节点或机架级AI基础设施。来源为个人Substack投资博客，数据主要引自KoyFin，且所谓英伟达与Broadcom业绩差异分析位于付费墙后。相较知识库，新增仅是约2700亿美元营收和30美元EPS等市场预测，未提供新产品、架构规格、客户订单、量产交付或部署信息；命中资本市场评论及正文增量不足的否决情形。"
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AI新颖性: 4
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AI摘要模型: "ali-deepseek-v4-flash"
AI摘要时间: "2026-09-06T23:44:31.736Z"
采集批次: "2026年9月6日19点27分09秒"
采集批次ID: "20260906-192709-237"
去重键: "https://mbideepdives.substack.com/p/spare-a-thought-for-broadcom-shareholders"
---

After Nvidia’s earnings, I was almost **[shocked](https://mbideepdives.substack.com/p/nvidia-climbing-the-wall-of-worries?utm_source=publication-search)** to see how the company’s estimates for next year surpassed far above consensus estimates and yet the stock has barely outperformed the S&P 500 (and actually underperformed both the QQQ and the semiconductor ETF). Well, spare a few thoughts for Broadcom shareholders then. At least, Nvidia stock is up ~20% YTD whereas Broadcom stock is essentially flat YTD during perhaps one of the most lopsided demand-supply compute markets ever! And yes, just like Nvidia, sell-side wasn’t even remotely close to the outlook Broadcom provided for 2028. At the beginning of 2026, analysts were estimating $162 Billion revenue for Broadcom in FY2028. After the 2028 outlook provided by Broadcom in 3Q’26 call, the estimate has shot up by more than $100 Billion over the course of this year to reach ~$270 Billion!

Source: KoyFin (MBI Deep Dives readers get 20% discount; just click here )

These aren’t just empty calories either; Broadcom started the year with 2028 EPS estimate of $17.6. It’s now $30!

Source: KoyFin (MBI Deep Dives readers get 20% discount; just click here )

So, 2028 EPS estimate rose by **~70%** over the course of this year and the stock is down YTD in a market full of investors chasing accelerating topline and upward estimates revision? What!!??

I know, I know I am supposed to say buy-side estimates were already up there and sell-side estimates here are obsolete. But can we please not pretend that buy-side was estimating $30 EPS for 2028 at the start of this year? Whether you’re buy-side or sell-side, I have little doubt that the estimates for Broadcom became higher over the course of this year. So the fact that Broadcom stock has lagged the benchmarks so badly must be due to something else.

As the saying goes, the “meta” is always changing in the stock market. Just when you think you know how the market works in the short-term (“Just buy accelerating topline, bro”) and most people start to believe that mantra, it may start to stop working. As an intended long-term shareholder of every stock I own, I admittedly admire all the ways market can confound short-term investors as it makes me feel good to not need to waste my brain cells to explain tick-by-tick changes in the stock price in the short term.

So, no, I’m not going to be able to explain why Broadcom stock hasn’t been “working” this year, but behind the paywall, I will share some interesting divergences between Nvidia and Broadcom based on their respective earnings calls.

---

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