--- 格式版本: 2 标题: "高盛顶级专家解读内存多空争论：涨价持续至2027年中 涨势却在放缓 _ 东方财富网" 原文链接: "https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608113837673240.html" 发布日期: "2026-08-11" 发布时间校准状态: "found" 发布时间需复核: "否" 发布时间来源: "rule:shared:strict_url_url" 发布时间证据: "https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608113837673240.html" 发布时间校准原因: "规则确认唯一严格发布时间，来源 shared:strict_url_url" 发布时间校准置信度: "high" 发布时间候选数量: 27 发布时间严格候选数量: 7 发布时间原页读取状态: "source template page reused from URL open" 发布时间未找到原因: "" 发布时间校准时间: "2026-08-12T07:32:28+08:00" 发布时间仲裁状态: "skipped" 发布时间仲裁尝试次数: 0 发布时间仲裁耗时毫秒: 0 发现时间: "2026-08-12T07:31:52+08:00" 入库时间: "2026-08-11T23:32:28.821Z" 来源平台: "东方财富搜索" 搜索渠道: "source_template" 搜索词: "https://so.eastmoney.com/news/s?keyword=%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98" 匹配关键词: - "内存" - "HBM" - "量产" - "部署" - "AI" 相关厂家: [] 相关专家: [] 内容类型: "网页" 抓取工具: "CDP Render" 清洗工具: "CDP Text + Defuddle/Readability 正文提取" 原始附件: [] AI优质: "否" AI打分: 24 AI分档: "非优质" AI质检状态: "不通过" AI打分理由: "资料主要讨论内存市场价格与投资分析，虽涉及HBM但未展开超节点/机柜级AI系统架构、散热、互连等核心主题，属于财经类文章，与项目主题无关。" AI质检模型: "tx-deepseek-v4-flash" AI质检时间: "2026-08-12T07:32:40+08:00" AI主题相关性: 2 AI来源权威性: 5 AI新颖性: 5 AI技术细节: 0 AI商业部署信号: 2 AI完整性: 10 采集批次: "2026年8月12日2点04分20秒" 采集批次ID: "20260812-020420-289" 去重键: "https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608113837673240.html" --- - [财经](http://finance.eastmoney.com/) - [焦点](http://finance.eastmoney.com/yaowen.html) - [股票](http://stock.eastmoney.com/) - [新股](http://stock.eastmoney.com/newstock.html) - [期指](http://stock.eastmoney.com/gzqh.html) - [期权](http://option.eastmoney.com/) - [行情](http://quote.eastmoney.com/flash/sz300059.html) - [数据](http://data.eastmoney.com/) - [全球](http://stock.eastmoney.com/global.html) - [美股](http://stock.eastmoney.com/america.html) - [港股](http://hk.eastmoney.com/) - [期货](http://futures.eastmoney.com/) - [外汇](http://forex.eastmoney.com/) - [银行](http://bank.eastmoney.com/) - [基金](http://www.1234567.com.cn/) - [理财](http://money.eastmoney.com/) - [债券](http://bond.eastmoney.com/) - [直播](https://roadshow.eastmoney.com/) - [股吧](http://guba.eastmoney.com/) - 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me!](data:image/png;base64,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)](http://acttg.eastmoney.com/pub/web_app_dcsy_zccpl_01_01_01_1 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"https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202608113837673240.html") 提示： 微信扫一扫 分享到您的 朋友圈 ![](https://g1.dfcfw.com/g4/202608/20260806130850.png) AI妙想为你解读全文 APP内免费阅读 ![](https://g1.dfcfw.com/g4/202608/20260806130911.png) 　　 [在东方财富看资讯行情，选东方财富证券一站式开户交易>>](https://acttg.eastmoney.com/pub/webtg_hskh_act_zixun_01_01_01_0?infocode=202608113837673240) 　　尽管华尔街共识内存市场将在2027年继续短缺，但分析师已隐隐分出牛熊两派。 　　 [高盛](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.GS) 顶级科技专家Sean Johnstone在一份报告中指出，市场正在争论内存价格的上涨空间。多头一派认为，HBM和DRAM订单已排期到2027年，长期协议设定了价格底线，这代表着内存仍有70%至80%的利润空间。 　　空头则分析称，内存价格的“二阶导数”已经转负，意味着内存上涨的速度放缓，可能在明年第二季度或者第三季度达到峰值，并在晚些时候转向小幅下跌。此外，内存行业高达80%的利润率正在促使客户重新设计其芯片，这可能影响内存的供需平衡。 　　此前报道称 [英伟达](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA) 正在评估降低Rubin Ultra的HBM堆叠和容量，可能也印证了空头的这一看法。SemiAnalysis测算称， [英伟达](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA) 可能将单机架HBM内存的成本占比从接近40%压缩至28%。 　　 [高盛](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.GS) 表示，保守的投资者已经将内存的市盈率从5倍下调至2至3倍。内存价格上涨仍将持续至2027年中期，但稀缺性阶段已经过去。剩余的价格上涨空间取决于长期协议会否大量新增产能，以及HBM的产能增长是否会抵消DRAM/NAND产能的任何正常化趋势。 　　值得关注的是，马斯克此前指出，市场对内存的需求增长了200%，但供应才增长了20%，且产能主要集中在HBM而非传统内存。另有报道指出， [苹果](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.AAPL) 正在测试 [长鑫科技](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.688825) 的内存芯片，以缓解内存供应压力。 　　 **其他科技辩论** 　　在报告中， [高盛](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.GS) 还讨论了其他几项关键的科技行业议题，如软件行业在 [人工智能](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800) 时代是否只是输家。高盛认为，市场越来越愿意相信 [人工智能](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800) 能够创造增量消费和新的工作负载，从而给予特定领域的软件企业更多信任。 　　市场近期的反弹也给出了类似的意见，更接近数据平面、可观测性、代理运行时和开发者工作流的公司的股价均出现反弹，而纯应用软件供应商的估值则仍处于折价状态。 　　下一个考验是即将公布的大型SaaS/应用公司的季度财报，如Intuit和Adobe。如果这些公司能够在没有显著的销量或价格压力的情况下，展现出早期 [人工智能](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800) 变现或用户增长的趋势，它们的股价应该会反弹。 　　另一方面，针对人工智能模型的开源和闭源之争，高盛援引Pinterest管理层言论指出，开源模型的成本优势显而易见，单笔交易成本不到同类闭源模型的8%，任何不利用开源模型的CEO都是在浪费股东的资金。 　　上市公司 [多邻国](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.DUOL) 以及 [亚马逊](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.AMZN) 的公司高层也均发表了类似的看法，高盛总结指出，成本、定制化和数据控制等因素正日益促使企业在生产工作负载中采用开源或开源权重模型。 　　最后，高盛也讨论了人工智能债务融资的问题。该机构信贷策略师估计，超大规模 [数据中心](http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0922) 运营商2027年约35%的资本支出可能通过债务融资，这意味着全球债务发行量将达到约4000亿美元，其他人工智能基础设施公司也可能需要资金。 　　与此同时，股权发行也将持续增长，无论是近期发行折扣的幅度，还是发行后的业绩动态，均未显示出任何异常消化不良的迹象。高盛预期，尽管供需平衡已向不利于股票投资者的方向转变，但今年预计1.4万亿美元的股票回购将消化AI公司上市后的大量股票供应。 　　 [想炒股，先开户！选东方财富证券，行情交易一个APP搞定>>](https://acttg.eastmoney.com/pub/webtg_hskh_act_zixun_01_01_01_0?infocode=202608113837673240) （文章来源：财联社） ![](https://g1.dfcfw.com/g4/202608/20260805130749.png) 暗盘资金榜已更新!这些个股/板块可以关注> 文章来源：财联社 责任编辑：70 原标题：高盛顶级专家解读内存多空争论：涨价持续至2027年中 涨势却在放缓 **郑重声明：** 东方财富发布此内容旨在传播更多信息，与本站立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 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